Why does macroeconomics not matter?

Many talk about the macroeconomic aspects to support their investments, but does it really matter?

Macroeconomic analysis is very useful for central banks and governments. As far as fiscal and monetary policy is concerned, macroeconomic data are vital. Economists are not very good at making predictions. That is, they cannot tell you the exact date of the next crash, but they are more effective at applying tools to solve problems. Is there a lot of inflation? There is a solution to that. Is there deflation? There is another tool for that. Is there unemployment? There are also tools for that. It’s all one big data reading, tools, re-reading data, new tools.

Now, economists who do not work in a central bank or for the Ministry of Economy can always go into academia. In the academic world, papers and more papers are written. It is all about obtaining data, making hypotheses, refuting old assumptions and revealing new findings. Academics aspire to have their findings taken into account by decision makers. Generally, progress is small, gradual and specific. Economists are essentially scientists working like other scientists.

If you want to engage in heated economic debates with radical approaches, it is best to go to politics and the media. In the public arena, economics was talked about all the time, but in a very poor way. Imagine for a second an astronomer or an astronaut at a conference of planners. Well, that’s basically how an economist feels in the middle of a public debate on economics.

People usually ignore economists in the discussion about economics. That’s basically how you build a rocket and ignore physicists. In economics, the gap between expert opinion and public opinion is extremely large. In other words, the ideas of professional economists are radically different from the ideas of ordinary people. This is not the case with astrophysicists, doctors, mathematicians, engineers, or chemists, for example. The big difference is that people do not trust the expertise of economists. In other words, in the collective imagination, anyone knows more than an economist.

In a survey conducted by Stefanie Stantcheva, Abhijit Banerjee, and Esther Duflo, “Me and Everyone Else: Do People Think Like Economics?” MIT, 2019, we are told that only 25% of the public trusts economists. Only politicians were rated less highly. Those who predict the climate in the news got a much better rating. Unbelievable, but true.

Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo, winners of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics, talk about this in their book “Good Economics for Hard Times”. One of the explanations for this enormous problem of “confidence” of economists is the above-mentioned gap between the opinions of experts and those of the public. Do the earth planners trust NASA?

It is clear that many of the economic positions we hear in the press do not come from the latest economic theory. In fact, they come from different political ideologies. That explains a lot. How is it possible that a young millennial speaks today like a libertarian from the 1970s? How is it possible that economists from the last century whose theories have been refuted many times in the academic field are still being cited? And how is it possible that inflation is being raised as our main problem in the midst of the worst deflationary crisis in our recent history? Political passions.

Politics easily becomes dogma. And dogmas do not update themselves over time. For example, today’s computer scientists have different tools that the computer scientists of the 1970s did not have. Many fields have advanced in recent decades. The economy has also advanced a lot. However, politics still dominates economic positions. If you are right-wing, you subscribe to the right-wing booklet. If you are from the left, you subscribe to the libretto of the left. And if you are libertarian, you subscribe to the libertarian libretto. Here the latest economic theory is not taken into account.

The Bitcoin community is full of libertarians. That’s why, for an economist, listening to a bitcoin is like time travel. Which is very curious. Because in crypto space, macroeconomics is always used as a reason to buy Bitcoin. Libertarians have been promoting the purchase of gold as a protection against bad macroeconomics for more than 100 years. Usually, the narrative of the catastrophe is used. The world is on the verge of collapse, buy gold. The world is on the verge of collapse, buy Bitcoin.

In studies by Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo, we are also told that economists seem to be much more optimistic about the economy than the general public. In other words, there is a correlation between optimism and economic knowledge.

The story of the Wizard of Oz (1900), for example, presents us with a pessimistic view of monetary management, promoting a return to the gold standard after the panic of 1893. It has been 127 years since the panic of 1893 and many are still talking about the collapse of the dollar with the same arguments.

However, as investors, macroeconomics does not matter much. In fact, discussing economic issues does not help much. As investors, the important thing is to understand that the economy moves in cycles. A long term investor does not care much about whether inflation this year will be 1.5% or 2.1%. Over the next 20 years, macroeconomic data will be different every year. Many things could happen and most of them are unknown.

The macroeconomic debate is a waste of time. An investor’s time is better spent designing a diversified and balanced investment portfolio. The task is to buy good assets at good prices and hold them for a long time. In this regard, my recommendation to the reader friend is to separate policy from investment. Your portfolio should be designed with objectivity. The politics of the moment, macroeconomic criticism, and fashionable ideology are bad reasons to invest.

Gold is a perfect example that pessimism is not a good advisor for an investor. Let’s go back to 1893 as a reference. $100 in gold versus $100 on Wall Street in 1893? Which strategy proved more profitable? In the long term, optimism has proven to be the best attitude for the investor (by far). Therefore, the investor should always look for undervalued assets with great investment potential, in good times and in bad times. Today the dollar is up, tomorrow it is down. We must learn to live with cycles. But the investor must continue on his eternal quest. Buying Bitcoin, because someone says the dollar will collapse is not very smart. You have to buy Bitcoin, because it’s at a very good price and has a great future. It’s as simple as that. Be an investor.

Bitcoin enjoys new popularity in Egypt thanks to Corona crisis

In times of crisis, the Egyptians also discovered Bitcoin as a source of income.

While the Corona crisis has also plunged the Egyptian economy into crisis and unemployment is rising in the country, more and more Egyptians see trade and mining of Bitcoin as a possible source of income.

According to Al-Monitor, many Egyptians, especially young people, are now interested in crypto-currencies. Wael al-Nahhas, an economist and financial advisor for several investment companies in Egypt, explains in this context:

“Many young Egyptians have started to invest small amounts of money, even though the price of Bitcoin has gone up. They also mine Satoshi, the smallest unit of Bitcoin, which is a 100 millionth, and make 4-5% profit every day from the difference between the purchase and sales price when demand is particularly high or particularly low. In addition, there are gains from unexpected price jumps of Bitcoin.

Unemployment in Egypt rose from 7.7% in the first quarter of 2020 to 9.6% in the second quarter. This means that almost half a million Egyptians have lost their jobs, according to the latest official figures from the Federal Statistical Office of Egypt.

No wonder that the trade in Bitcoin has become a flourishing business.

However, Muhammad Abd el-Baseer, a Bitcoin miner and member of the Bitcoin Egypt community, sees other factors that have contributed to the growing popularity of the crypto currency. Increased home office, short-time work and curfew hours would all have contributed to giving Egyptians more opportunities to invest in Bitcoin. He estimates that the Bitcoin Egypt community has gained more than 16,000 new members during this time. He assumes that there are many more crypto enthusiasts, as members could in turn pass on their knowledge to friends and family.

Of course, the newly won crypto euphoria also increases the legal uncertainty in the Egyptian community regarding the trade in Bitcoin. However there are to be already first discussions over a new law, which would form a legal framework for crypto currencies.

La cadena de bloques de Bitcoin se romperá antes de que la minería de asteroides sea posible: Peter Schiff

Contenido

  • Una nueva narrativa de Bitcoin
    El misterio de Schiff’s Bitcoin

Peter Schiff, el CEO de Euro Pacific Capital, finalmente decidió hacer mella en la narrativa pro Bitcoin Code sobre la minería de asteroides.

Asume que el avance de la computación será tan drástico que la cadena de bloques de Bitcoin se romperá antes de que sea posible extraer oro en el espacio.

Además, Schiff afirma que las riquezas de oro descubiertas en el espacio no llegarán a la Tierra:

“Mucho antes de que se extraiga oro de los asteroides (aunque el oro extraído en el espacio probablemente nunca sea devuelto a la Tierra, sino que se use en el espacio) los avances en informática desde entonces habrán roto hace tiempo la cadena de bloques de Bitcoin, asumiendo que el mercado de Bitcoin no se rompió por sí solo primero”.

Una nueva narrativa de Bitcoin

Durante su tan cacareada reunión con el fundador de Barstool Sports, Dave Portnoy, los Winklevoss usaron el argumento de la minería espacial para explicar por qué Bitcoin es superior al metal amarillo.

La idea no parece ser tan descabellada. A principios de este año, la NASA unió sus fuerzas con SpaceX de Elon Musk para empezar a explorar Psyche 16, un asteroide rico en minerales que podría convertir a cada terrícola en millonario, en 2022.

Mientras que Portnoy (así como el Twitter criptográfico) se reía principalmente de esta amenaza, el ex CTO de la base de Coinbase, Balaji S. Srinivasan cree que el metal amarillo podría experimentar el nivel de inflación que será similar al del siglo XVI cuando mucho oro llegaba a Europa desde América:

“Dicho esto, si estás debatiendo con gente que está de acuerdo en que el dólar está inflando su valor pero que todavía está al alza con el oro, yo no encabezaría el argumento de la escasez en sí (por muy válido que sea). Dirigiría con el hecho de que el oro físico tiene un riesgo de contrapartida y es difícil de transportar.”

Relacionado
Peter Schiff dice que no hay interés en Bitcoin a pesar del “esfuerzo masivo” para bombearlo

El misterio de Schiff’s Bitcoin

Aunque la computación cuántica podría causar un cambio importante en la criptocracia, es poco probable que se escalara lo suficiente como para producir algún impacto en la cadena de bloques de Bitcoin en un futuro próximo, tal y como explicó el desarrollador Peter Todd:

“Aún no sabemos si es posible escalar los ordenadores cuánticos; es muy posible que añadir qbits tenga un coste exponencial”.

Dicho esto, la comprensión de Schiff de Bitcoin es muy mediocre en el mejor de los casos para hacer afirmaciones tan escandalosas.

A principios de enero, el bicho de oro de 57 años se avergonzó públicamente al confundir el PIN de su cartera de Bitcoin con la frase de la semilla.

OTC Trade lance une solution de trading Bitcoin au comptoir

OTC Trade, une société de «logiciel en tant que service» basée au Nevada, vient de lancer une plate-forme de négociation de gré à gré axée sur «les traders, les bureaux de négociation, les investisseurs institutionnels, les sociétés de capital-investissement et les family offices, » Selon un communiqué de presse du groupe .

Ici, les utilisateurs pourront échanger Bitcoin Era dans ce que l’on appelle un espace peer-to-peer. Cela signifie que les utilisateurs échangent directement entre eux sur une plateforme. La plate-forme offre des transactions instantanées et fournit les fonctionnalités KYC nécessaires, même si elle permet des transactions anonymes en même temps.

S’exprimant sur la question est Alan McGrath, le PDG d’OTCTrade, qui dit:

«Nous avons mené des recherches approfondies et avons découvert que les principaux avantages ou fonctionnalités recherchés étaient l’accès aux offres et l’amélioration de la confiance, de la vitesse, de la confidentialité et de la sécurité.»

OTCTrade a également révélé un partenariat avec Prime Trust, fournissant une assurance de 5 millions de dollars à chaque compte de cette plate-forme, indique également le communiqué.

Schuyler Hawkins, vice-président du développement des affaires chez Prime Trust, a également partagé quelques réflexions:

«Prime Trust est l’institution financière axée sur la technologie qui fournit des solutions d’infrastructure ouverte aux innovateurs FinTech. Nous alimentons les applications financières, les processeurs de paiement, les échanges cryptographiques, les ATS, les bureaux OTC, les portails de financement participatif, les plates-formes immobilières, les courtiers, les conseillers en investissement et autres avec des solutions API intelligentes pour créer des services financiers de classe mondiale à grande échelle. Et nous sommes ravis de nous associer à OTCTrade.com et à leur solution de classe mondiale, pour fournir nos services indispensables pour améliorer la sécurité et la confiance dans ce marché en croissance rapide. Ils disposent d’une solution OTC Trading Desk révolutionnaire, idéale pour notre marché. »

Crypto News Weekly Round Up (18. juli) – Altcoin Season, Binance, Twitter og mer

Altcoin-sesongen fortsetter å trives i kryptomarkedet med mange mynter som registrerer en snodig vekst i pris og volum.

Hackere hacket høyprofilerte Twitter-kontoer, Paypal gikk inn i kryptovalutaen og Binance lanserte sitt kryptodebetkort.

Altcoin sesongutbredelse fortsetter

Året 2020 regnes som Altcoin Season av mange handelsmenn. Imidlertid er kjernen i saken at de store Altcoins har steget med godt volum og pris. Altcoins inkludert Chainlink, Dogecoin, Stellar, Vechain og mange andre har vært vitne til en enorm vekst de siste dagene.

Mange analytikere har også sterk følelse av Altseason 2020 mens pappamynten fortsatte Bitcoin å dominere de andre valutaene i topposisjonen.

På den ene siden, mens flertallet av næringsdrivende ikke forventer at BTC vil pumpe opp for mer enn 30 eller 40 prosent – på den annen side ser handelsmenn ut etter noen billigere altcoins, og forventer en god avkastning i fremtiden. Når det er sagt, viste LINK, DOGE, ADA, XTZ og andre potensielle cryptocurrencies denne uken.

Siste utvikling på kryptoområdet

Den mest uventede hendelsen kryptomiljøet var vitne til var twitter hack. Hacket var ment å fremme enbitcoin-svindelgjennom høyprofilerte kontoer som hadde millioner av følgere. Disse regnskapene inkluderte en tidligere president for USAs Barack Obama, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Bill Gates og kryptokuler som Binance-administrerende direktør CZ, og også andre kryptosentraler. Imidlertid suspenderte Twitter umiddelbart alle berørte kontoer og slettet tweets. I den siste oppdateringen undersøker FBI den videre etterforskningen.

Mer, merker Crypto News Weekly Round Up også om den nylige utviklingen av en kjent betalingsoverføringsplattform, PayPal. I henhold til rapportene utvikler giganten muligheter for styring av kryptoaktiver. Følgelig, med 22 års erfaring og 30 millioner aktive brukere over hele verden, er integrasjonen med cryptocururrency forutsett som et varig oppdrag å demokratisere den digitale økonomien.

Binance, en av kryptogigantene, var nylig i nyheter for lanseringen av et debetkort. Binance rullet ut det sveipedrevne kryptokortkortetsom vil støtte fire kryptovalutaer for øyeblikket. Binance-kortet skulle inn i det europeiske økonomiske området, og brukerne deres vil kunne søke om kortet fra august 2020.

Stjernen samarbeidet med Samsung Blockchain Network

Stellar Development Foundation som støtter utviklingen av Stellar crypto-aktiva kunngjorde integreringen av Stellar med Samsung Blockchain Keystore. Partnerskapet lar Samsung-enhetsbrukere lagre private nøkler tilknyttet Stellar blockchain-lommeboken.

Mange programvarelommebøker er mye tilgjengelig i markedet fra de siste mange årene, men Samsung har brukt en mer sikker tilnærming ved å bruke en maskinvarenivå-segregering.

Analytikeren Peter Brandt hadde antydet at XLM vil være den neste altcoinen til å pumpe i kryptomarkedene. Videre i hans kvitringidentifiserte han et omvendt hode- og skuldermønster som kan hjelpe den digitale eiendelen til å bølge.